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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/16 10:48

   Corn, Beans Lowered; Wheat Mixed at Midday Tuesday

   Corn trade is 1-2 cents lower. Beans are 5-6 cents lower and wheat trade is 
5 cents lower to 2 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed at midday with the S&P 7 points lower. The 
dollar index is up 7 points. The interest rate products are weaker. Energies 
are firmer with crude up $0.20 and natural gas off 2 cents. Livestock trade is 
solidly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $18.50.


   Corn is 1-2 cents lower at midday with rangebound action continuing with 
little news to change market direction for the moment after early attempts to 
put risk premium back in over world events faded overnight. Ethanol margins 
remain range-bound as well with spring driving demand unexceptional so far with 
blender margins remaining good.

   The daily wire was quiet today. Basis should remain sideways until the end 
of the month. Near-term weather looks to bring some further rains before a 
stretch of cooler weather into the weekend with weekly crop progress showing 
planting at 6% vs. 5% on average. The second crop in Brazil should continue to 
develop with limited short-term concerns. On the May chart, the 20-day at $4.34 
is nearby resistance with our support of the lower Bollinger Band at $4.25.


   Soybean trade is 5-6 cents lower at midday with the continued erosion in oil 
values keeping pressure on trade along with continued export pressure out of 
South America seasonally. Meal is $0.50 to $1.50 lower and oil is 40 to 50 
points lower. South America continues to see few issues short term as harvest 
rolls on in Brazil and the growing season winds down in Argentina as the export 
window expands for them.

   The daily wire remained quiet today. Planting in the U.S. should start to 
advance a little more this week with planting progress at 3% vs. 1% on average 
with this week's weather systems likely to slow progress again. The monthly 
crush report was a record again in March but growing oil stocks are a limiting 
factor for upside. May soybean futures have support at the $11.50 lower 
Bollinger Band which we tested this morning. Chart resistance is at the 20-day 
moving average at $11.83.  


   Wheat trade is 5 cents lower to 2 cents higher as we look to consolidate 
further above nearby support with the mixed recent action. The Plains will see 
seasonal temperatures start to give way to a cooler stretch at the end of the 
week with overall moisture prospects better the second week. The dollar 
continues to limit upside with action holding at the upper end of the range 
with MATIF wheat seeing softer action.

   Weekly crop progress showed heading at 11% vs. 7% on average, with good to 
excellent off 1% to 55% and poor to very poor up 1% to 13% while spring wheat 
was 7% planted vs. 6% on average. On the KC May chart, support is the 20-day at 
$5.81 that we popped back through last week with the upper Bollinger band at 
$5.95 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. 

   Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala.

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