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DTN Midday Grain Comments 08/12 10:47
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday Wednesday Ahead of USDA
Report
Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 9 to 10 cents higher; wheat futures are 19 to 30 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 9 to 10 cents higher; wheat futures are 19 to 30 cents higher. The U.S.
stock market is narrowly mixed at midday with the S&P 13 points higher. The
U.S. Dollar Index is 1 point lower. The interest rate products are firmer.
Energy trade is mixed with crude up .05 and natural gas .03 cents higher.
Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are firmer with
gold up 42.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday in active pre-report action
as we bounce off the low end of the range. On the report, trade is looking for
yield at 182.3 bushels per acre (bpa) with old-crop carryout at 2.0 billion
bushels (bb) and new-crop at 1.724 bb, all down slightly from last month.
Weekly ethanol production edged higher by 10,000 barrels per day (bpd) with
stocks 300,000 barrels higher on the week. Weekly export sales are expected to
be in the 750,000 metric tons (mt) to 1.0 million metric ton (mmt) range
between the two crop years. Weather looks to keep the central and eastern belt
wetter with temps holding a bit above normal. Basis will likely drift lower
except for the west in the short term. On the September chart, the 20-day
moving average at $4.48 has become resistance with the fresh low scored last
week at $4.34 as support, which we tested Tuesday.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 9 to 10 cents higher at midday with meal leading
products as we continue as try to follow the grains higher so far Wednesday.
Meal is 2.00 to 3.00 higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. On the report,
trade is looking for yield at 52.8 bpa with old-crop carryout at 321 million
bushels (mb) and new at 302 mb, also down slightly from last month. Basis will
likely ease as product action drifts along. Weather looks to keep stress south
into midmonth with better moisture for much of the belt in the short term. The
daily export wire saw 244,000 mt sold to China for new crop. Weekly sales are
expected to be in the 1.0 to 1.25 mmt range between crop years Thursday. On the
September contract, chart resistance is the 20-day moving average at $11.88
with support the Lower Bollinger Band at $11.30.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 19 to 31 cents higher at midday with renewed Black Sea
port attacks bringing buyers back overnight as we bounce off support again with
KC action pressing into nearby resistance pre-report. On the report, trade is
looking for wheat carryout at 718 mb, down just slightly from last month.
Spring wheat areas should see harvest expand further as we get closer to the
halfway point. Matif wheat is sharply higher after the port attacks with a good
close needed to support further buying. Weekly export sales are expected to be
in the 200,000 to 450,000 mt range. On the KC September chart, resistance is
the 20-day moving average at $7.22, which we are just above at midday, with the
$7.00 area as support, which we have held Tuesday.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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